I recently came across some very interesting Cartoons on Time.com . Click here to view them all.

On my visit to the Maldives, just last week, I was able to see how the country is being run by his Excellency President Mohamed Nasheed.

On my return flight to Birmingham, just yesterday, I had the chance to watch ‘ W. ’ (A chronicle on the life and presidency of George W. Bush). I agree whole heartedly with George W. that in history we will all be dead.

I have not been able to decide which one of the two I should be reviewing here on my blog and why.

Another story from my learned friend.

"An expert asked a politician, how about setting a minimum qualification for the parliamentarians? The idea wasn’t of appeal to the politician as many parliamentarians without qualifications were doing well in representing their people. The expert nodded.

A while later the expert asked, how about setting a minimum qualification for the voters so that voters are more intelligent? The politician did not respond this time."

A resident of the Maldives visiting Birmingham sums up the circumstances of ordinary people of the Maldives in 6 short lines.

"The train is on the wrong track. 

I kept telling everyone that the train is on the wrong track and yet no one is concerned.

No one wanted to leave or jump off the train.

Then I kept whistling and telling everyone that the train is on the wrong track.

No one listened.

As the last resort I left the train."

I am voting for change because I want a brighter and better future for all Dhivehin (Maldivians).

The term overcoming dictator is an action-packed title to pop up today when many Maldivians are attempting to do just that. A fact is Gayoom who has been in power in the country for 30 years will not leave easily and nor will his family let go the wealth and power they have always enjoyed. We see this now, all his brothers and children strategising in every way they can to uphold the dictatorship and to control the lives of those on the island state. It is sickening to realise how dirty he is.

The title for this post though is borrowed from an exhibition that is being held at University of Birmingham called ‘overcoming dictator’. The exhibition explores art produced in response to the collapse of political authoritarian systems. The 17 pieces deal with processes of mourning, remembering and overcoming the past. I photographed a few and you can view them here.

I stumbled upon a blog post by Simon on the subject: Read the Auditor General's Reports.  The post is on a recent realization that Gayoom and his gangs have robbed the Maldives in just the past few years alone and I threaded a comment as follows:

"You are right. It sickens me too how Gayoom and his gangs have robbed this country. This is a calculated conduct to make a profit for him and excessive and insolent use of power. This conduct amounts to misfeasance in a public office and he should be sued in tort immediately.

If public officers will infringe men's money right (i.e. prosperity), they ought to pay greater damages than other men. Gayoom in this case owes the country and its people compensation and exemplary damages."

For the first time under a new constitution, the Maldives is voting in a few days. In many aspects it’s a rush job. The completion of the newly drafted constitution and the provision to hold a presidential election in October, time is short for a campaign for any candidate. Unofficially though, many have been preparing for candidacy for a long time. Of the six candidates/political groups, the Maldives will elect the country’s president for the next five years. A clear and visible determination is seen among all candidates for their bid for the country’s top job.

Candidates have spoken of their offer for the country and citizens. As a citizen it is disappointing to realise fewer than a couple of candidates have seriously been objective in making a good offer for the country. Of the few, I find Dr. Hassan’s bid and his manifesto very well structured; this is about the promise isn’t it? I consider his statements to deliver the promise as overwhelming. On another note, now more than ever, the country requires an intellectually capable leader. Dr. Hassan along with Dr. Shaheed and Dr. Jameel’s offer for better and more equitable prosperity for the country and its people, is no doubt the best offer on the table so far. I therefore trust and support Dr. Hassan in his bid for the next president of the Maldives.

It is uniquely Male’. Residential buildings are clogged with tenants and roads are congested by commuters. A drop of rain means motorists glide, slip and fall driving over cement-bricks-paved roads (a world’s first). Why worry, the crowded city is definitely taken. Not so long ago experienced local divers found cracks underneath Male’. For the moment nothing is wrong and the development can move on. One would agree Male’ can only expand vertically by cutting through and claiming air space. Newer building code allowing a maximum height of fifteen stories is therefore of no surprise.

Claiming parts of the sea is not so bad after all. HulhuMale’ is certainly inhabitable land and it is a pity that the president would use it as a pet-project to his never ending political aspirations. Punctuated and snail speed developments and offerings mean that citizens can wait. It is uniquely Maldives.

It goes without saying that both human talent and financial resources are essential ingredients to the good growth of an economy. These are inputs that countries can’t do away with. The situation for the Maldives is fairly straight that ordinary people on the streets utter at near precision, that wealth generated takes flight, that the country is left with no money, unstable economy and poor-country-ratings cause high borrowing costs that in turn pushes the pricing of funds and other products, talents are seriously lacking and that locals pick and choose jobs they want, that are all counterproductive for business and industries. As it is, expatriates contribute very positively to the Maldives economy by filling the vacancies that Maldivians shy away from or are yet incapable of. Expatriate nationality mix means Bangladeshi’s through being Moslems, subject to confirming other criteria of course, are the only promising nationality that will be allowed to integrate into the Maldives. When most small and poor countries invite and offer citizenship in return for investors definitive and long term contribution to the economy, Maldivians are scared to death to open this up. Investors bring about wealth and know-how that through provisions in the legislation, the country’s economic multiplier can be positively altered.

Aspiring Maldivians seek nothing less than systems they observe in the developed world are challenging the local politicians for good change. But let us face it, for the Maldivians to give birth to every type of talent and to necessary numbers of wealthy businessmen (replicating enough buruma gasim’s) to turn the economy when they finally grow up in 30 years is, if anything, a far off dream. If a single DRP member is able to lock the Maldives citizenship for Moslems only and that such a provision goes uncontested, present generations are likely to re-witness the same slow growth 5000 years onward by when, if lucky, we may have a population of two million people in 200 islands. Mind you, the diseconomies we are living today, mainly as a result of the small population, could cause very harsh situations in near term. 

A reality we must all wakeup for is that through will, talent and enabling provisions, situations can be altered to benefit the economy in short and long term.

This is an appreciation of The Maldives Information and Reform Minister’s blog post on ‘Condition of Religion on Citizenship’ and comments posted on it. Reading his posting first is seen important to taking away an informed view of this mega problem (link).

PART 1
If we as a country are just coming out of a cocoon with less than three hundred thousand people punctuated in 200 tiny islets and think that we have what it takes to consider a protectionist approach I wish the decision makers and the affected brotherhood good luck in their endeavour to protect what is good.

But hold-on, what is ‘good’? The Maldives with its youth barely literate, either on drugs or alcohol, living homelessly in makeshift setting in the densely populated capital city or in isolation in one of the many little islands with bare land, employment laws if any are laid to push labour to extreme conditions, underpaid workforce across the board or are jobless and misguided and believe that bribery, cheats, and crime are equivalents of good, if worth protecting - please do so. What good have the predecessors left in the 5000 years in the Maldives, that the population never grew beyond three hundred thousand people mark, building structures came about only two decades ago and while today’s parents are still struggling to push their children out of the tribal system? What politics or laws have we got that its citizens are still struggling to prevent the president from contesting for a seventh five year term in this post-modern time?

Is religion among what is to be preserved in the Maldives? for whom? Many like to assume the Maldives has a population consisting of Islamic radicalists, modern moderates, and the remaining on path to other religions/beliefs, but my interpretation is different to this. The former group of deep-seated moslems around the world justify multiple wives by referring to annals of research that suggest that females are reasonably more in numbers that an extra marriages are a social duty of the able, and seek to consume halal slaughtered meat and poultry from trusted sources. Halal slaughtered meat and poultry (labelled as Halal in bold characters) sometimes turn up very unhygienic and near poisonous. Other major Halal poultry producers in the West that run their HENS through pressurised carbon-dioxide channels that kills them, loud speakers that recite Quran, and assembly lines that chops their heads off at the end. Can this be termed halal food for the confused? The deep-seated Maldivian moslems unconditional settlement for blind and blank wrapped poultry packing falls short of the necessary rigor for the food that goes into their body. Besides, can this group of Maldivians afford a significant premium in exchange for their meat/poultry portion or is a trade off a better option instead? How else do they do away with this provision of halal food that they become righteous Moslems? Are our Maldivian deep-seaters likewise confused that the constitution of a Maldivian is not about their religion alone but a mechanism that capacitates them to be dunked in theirs?

PART 2
Later – may be tomorrow.

Twenty nine years in a sovereign nation with a population of little less than three hundred thousand people, if the civilised people are not capacitated for a good living, the president has FAILED in discharging his duties. But it doesnt really matter, does it? A large majority of the Maldives population is scattered in remote and tiny little islands that have only evolved so less when compared with those in the capital city. The islanders know none other than President Gayyoom and it is from him that confort is sought. Mr. Presidents’ strategy of diversifying the population to over 200 islands seems to work well for him and is likely to win him his presidency yet for another term in 2008.

Failed or successful delivery of a reform agenda is only a measure Mr. President’s ability to open up his repressed systems in the last minute and not by any means a determinant of successful leadership as some in the government seem to postulate. The outcome though, may reflect on Mr. President’s portfolio. In ones portfolio, there is a difference to have led a country with workable systems or to have ruined oppotunties for a country.

A common understanding is that most politicians in the Maldives are corrupt, yet the Maldives has successfully managed an exclusion / omission from the Global Corruption Report which is now in its sixth year; latest being Global Corruption Report 2007. Transparency International is the global coalition against corruption and focuses on judges and courts, but situating them within the broader justice system, and looking at political, economic and societal pressures on the judiciary. Great? Judge it for yourself.

Separately, I recall a friend of mine telling me that Dr. Shaugee, Minister of Tourism, in a recent speech, postulated the hypothesis that the Maldives is a safe and secure country. Guess what; the Maldives is also excluded /omitted from the World Tourism Organization’s (WTO) ‘National Tourist Safety and Security Sheets’. When the report is about safe environments for world tourism and monitoring tourism-associated risks, what does it mean to be in or not to be in this report? What does this entail?

Mohamed Hilmy in his post ' Time to rest the case ', he briefly looked at the two systems of government; presidential versus parliamentary system and I threaded a comment:

Two systems of governance in two powerful countries (US and UK) that we may never be able to copy and/or clone from; I never weighed what US or UK had become as a result of a system of government because the Maldives has a long, long way to go. To me the real question is what is acceptable for the Maldives, given its circumstances? By not going for the parliamentary system people have chosen not see a president that is not popular amongst the general and greater public. Let me reverse this scenario now.

Had we chosen the parliamentary system it wouldn’t have been difficult for Illyas to become a president by gaining the popularity of the parliament, but imagine him running for a presidency in a presidential system; not many would consider him an ideal candidate. So it is for many power hungry politicians and businessmen that supported the parliamentary system.

So far so good; the case needs to be buried.

18/8 public referendum resulted flawlessly for a presidential system of government for the Maldives and Asia’s longest-serving leader, President Gayyoom, in his interview to Reuters on 20/8 stressed that he will run for re-election in 2008 for a final five-year term.

After 29 years as the President, what is he seeking as new? Is it, the reform agenda that would become his legacy to the nation; status, wealth and acknowledgement for 5 more years; to express his love for the nation; to develop the economic, political and social systems in the country; to build a modern infrastructure and superstructure; all of these, none of these or some of these and others?

Attorney General Dr. Saeed and Justice Minister Mr. Jameel that were recognised as key reformists have chosen to take flight questioning Presidents' sincerity in separating powers and implementing judicial independence. Would a newly rafted constitution stand a post modern era when in fact bills presented and drafted are crafted by what is said to be corrupt politicians? Have we been able to meet today’s needs in social systems, economics and politics, let alone living up for contestable standards in developing futuristic solutions?

Granted that freedom of expression and wider information flows are important but what about institutions to replace iconic personalities. If the Maldives is to maintain stability through transition to an open country, considerable work is required in areas of government, society, security and economy.

In the government, strength of the government, rule of law needs improvement, and corruption needs to be dealt with.

Simmering social tension, youth disaffection, health, education and other services that deal with society score and per capita income that correlate with human development index need to be addressed.

From a security point of view, globalisation, geostrategic conditions, emergencies and disasters require better management.

Economy has to be driven to better fiscal condition, growth and investment, and debt must be lowered.

So far tension and youth disaffection are lowering society’s status and pushing the brittle Maldives into dangerous territory; political missteps on the part of the government are likely to bring about have dramatic long-term effects on the nation.

Analysts as well as scholars postulate that the Maldives has changed dramatically over the last 30 years and drastically in the last three or so years. I too acknowledge this notion through my philosophical scrim and congratulate his Excellency President Gayyoom over the journey the Maldives witnessed. From illiterate, poor and alien islanders to what we are today as better world citizens. Much changes in government, society, security and economy and confirm to the process of opening up a closed country. Transitions of the type inevitably cause instability and are being witnessed and acknowledge by many today.

Hon. Nasheed, Minister of Information and Arts, in his article ‘Another Sad Death in Maafushi Jail’ on his personal blog cited that the Maldives is inundated with political volatility, polarization of views, polemical divisions would need only a fraction of a second to turn men into mobs and nights into nightmares.

Shihab, in his article ‘Fear on the Streets of Male'’ on his personal blog provided a glimpse of the sort of place the Maldives has become.

Gradual opening, the release of long-repressed dissent is sparking violence. There is also a greater propensity for the Maldives to collapse through unintended consequences like in the case of the Soviet Union. Plotting where the Maldives is and the direction it is heading is tricky but an important issue that requires greater understanding.

Two determinants are so far helping the Maldives to remain stable: President Gayyoom’s capacity to implement the policies that he wants and his ability to avoid generating shocks and his strong authoritarian control that is valuable in the Maldives’ capacity to withstand shocks.

DRP promoting a presidential system and MDP supporting parliamentary system of government, both parties are doing their utmost in winning support for their preferred system for which the public will deliberate within days. Meanwhile, the absence of consensus is producing incoherent views on which the poor and the masses that are also the absentee-of-mind will make a decision for the nation.

Businessmen studying both economic and political risks, for opportunities may conceive from Hon. Jameel, Justice Ministers’ debate on the system of government about possible silver linings in a parliamentary system when in fact if one and/or few businessmen acquires position(s), others will weather the storm with major repercussions. When after 30 or so years of success, businesses and its rivals have failed to create distinctions amongst one another; such repercussions from a parliamentary system would lead political dark clouds on a business, from red to dead.

Politics is not exclusive to businesses but is everyone’s business. Political risks affect everyone including me. I do not want to ignore this topic without raising my voice simply because people should not lose the enfranchise that the presidential system has on offer.

The Maldives is small and isolated island microstate. Aside from Male’ the capital which is home to about seventy thousand people, the rest of the country’s population (about three hundred thousand) are widely disbursed in over 200 tiny little islets grouped as twenty atolls. These 200 islets, sometimes through corresponding atolls, attempted to get all of the benefits of big countries. In the process, they ignore the consequence of such “mimicry” to a small society by trying to attain the impossible. They try to replicate a full range of government functions, public services, commercial activities, and professions associated with nationhood. These severe restrictions through inherent economic, social, and political characteristics in the Maldives can be called “macrostate emulation syndrome” (Harrigan, 1974).

This is compounded by “microstate reality imperception” (Harrigan, 1974); that is, the refusal to recognize that these are small islands.

There are approximately 87 microstates in the world, of which 53 are island microstates including the Maldives. The term microstate usually refers to independent nations with populations under 1 million, but is also used to include various forms of government, including associate states, territories, and dependencies. The latter areas are not independent and therefore not completely autonomous in decision making, but are at least potentially involved to some greater or lesser degree in determining policy and implementing policy.

As an island microstate, the Republic of Maldives, recognised as an independent country, faces several development constraints as follows:

• no advantages of economies of scale (reduced further by fragmentation into 20 different atolls);
• a limited range of resources;
• a narrowly specialised economy (tourism and fishing);
• small, open economy with minimal ability to influence terms of trade or to manage and control the economy;
• limited ability to adjust to change in the international economic environment;
• dependence for key services on external institutions such as universities, regional training facilities, banking institutions;
• a narrow range of local skills and problems of matching local skills and jobs (exacerbated by brain and skill drain);
• a small GDP (problems of establishing import substitution industries);
• high transport, infrastructure, and administration costs;
• cultural pollution by metropolitan countries;
• geographical constrains (soil and climate);
• vulnerability to externally influenced illegal activities (drugs).

These constrains correlate with power and wealth of the country. Lack of power and wealth means that many decisions governing the lives of the indigenous people of the Maldives are made elsewhere by other countries (e.g., multinational hoteliers, airlines, tour operators, etc) postulating what Harrigan, (1974) calls an exogenous decision making or is it not the case?

When World War II ended in 1945, it ruined the West European economies. Following this event, the Bretton Woods (system of international monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states) allowed the Western Europe to have fixed exchange rates with the US dollar until 1970. With the entire WEST fixed around the US dollar, it became a more trusted currency for international trade. Just as the WEST released their peg to the US dollar, around in 1970, Maldives entered trade and tourism with US dollar as the basis for its economic activity. Whether or not tourism led International trade or vise versa, tourism was an incredible mechanism to attract the country’s foreign currency or US dollar requirement.

Through global framework, Maldives’ sought to compose its foreign exchange reserves in dollar denominations, partly by subscribing to US treasury bonds and such. The country also chose a further gamble by fixing/pegging its local currency, ‘Maldivian Rufiyya (MRF)’ to the US Dollar; the fixed exchange rate system. With this system, as the US dollar value raises and falls, so does the Maldivian Rufiyya. In other words this means that the monetary policy for Maldivian Rufiyya is being made by America's Federal Reserve. Available data postulates that US dollar was very strong until 2001, a period upto which Maldives was very successful. As evident from my presentation on ‘A Relationship study on US $ and Chinese Yuan’, China too had benefited by pegging its currency to the US dollar and also helped improve the Asian fiancial crisis in 1997.

Yet given Singapore’s success strategy, in 2005, China moved Yuans’ eleven year peg to the US dollar to a basket of International currency. Such a move is not without reason. US dollar has, since 2001 fallen and Yuan suffered through fall in trade-weighted value; this fall in US dollar, according to some analysts, is to offset America’s high trade related debt. What about the trade debt that Maldives is with? Does these changes warrent the Maldives to diversify its peg to a basket of currencies and to add other currencies to its fx reserve? Wouldn’t a diversity allow for natural hedging for the Maldives or should it simply stay put with the US dollar?

Another issue is the question as to how relevent is US dollar for todays’ Maldives tourism? Americans visiting Maldives for tourism are less than a percentage while the biggest source market is Europe. Europe as a union is evermore consolidating and Euro is becoming the currency. Our resorts price all their products in US dollar that is alien to most European travellers today. Isn't such a strategy likely to cause tourists to be rather protective than explorative, given that the currency itself is disorientating?

What about the highly orientated package holiday sales that tour operators enter into in home currencies, mainly in Euros and Serling, and the subsequent purchase of currency futures in US dollars to meet aged hotel invoices? A reality is when multiple currecies are involved powerful negotiators / contract managers build sufficient cutions as bargains from hotel operators for possible currency fluctuations. Moreover, often than not, the financial market will also come into the picture to take a sizable bite between the tour operator and the hotel. Some markets such as Seychelles and Mauritius have adapted a strategy to use Euro pricing. Isn't it perhaps time for our hotels to also think on the matter rather seriously or is the US dollar still highly relevant today?

Although the country is young, many tend to agree that the arrival of ‘Dhivehiobserver’ has accelerated public opinion over the current government and polarized views of many people. Another that resulted through ‘Dhivehiobserver’ was the introduction of political parties. When this occurred the present government claimed a strong position as 'Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party' while ‘Dhivehiobserver’ established partnership with ‘Maldives Democratic Party’ which is now the strongest opposition party.  The two parties being the major ones, have since, battled for greater and better democracy as it calls, or in other words, fought for power. As one would imagine, the party in power has access to more people and money at its disposal. Importantly 'Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party' also inventory best available brains in several government positions, irrespective of some disciplined brains succumb in non-related disciplines, altering the constitution under what is called a democratic reform agenda. Well, what about making exisiting business more equitable and beneficial to the people, let alone creating environments for creative businesses? When are we preventing leakages and linkages resulting from foreign investments?

The ‘Maldives Democratic Party’ on the other hand has become a platform for x-government members who at their time used power for self-benefit, to re-enter the political domain yet again. Hence the organisation is greatly concerned with defeating the current government, irrespective of the cost or benefit.

Noteworthy is the fact that many recognize that the opposition party isn’t embracing a democratic attitude within the organization itself. This in essence questions the ability of such a party to practice democratic governance if and when power is in their hands.

Seperately it was an honour to have met Sappe, Editor-in-chief of Dhivehi Observer during his visit to Manchester for MSA’s EGM. As a person he is very nice and simple which of course is to his credit? Many Maldivians including myself prescribe to the notion that there is 'good' has also brought about for the country by polarising many issues.

I was however saddened to realize that a possible future top official like him was rather shallow and too natural in reactions. I saw him turned extremely defensive, which is not right or is it? In fact some of the suggestions and comments from students were with the intention to participate and to contribute positively for ‘‘Maldives Democratic Partys’ success. Among many comments, Haulath who is doing her PhD in political science asked "Sappe isnt it time to step away from cheap politics?" and Sappe responded defensively saying that he is targeting the mass. Without the capacity for plurality of thoughts and ideas, without the technicalities of transforming public comments into usable and beneficial systems, raises concern over the country’s future or does it not?

Is then the reason for growing number of more informed locals staying away from either of the party significant to alter party manifestos to be more holistic and equitable for the indigenous people or sufficient space and opportunity for a new organization to be involved in a developmental reform rather than democratic reform? While there is doubt about the country’s ability to build a democratic framework without sufficient history to suggest what works and what doesn’t, is there a possibility for having a democracy without measurable development? Is it democracy or the development that we as a nation seek?